The aim of NVR is to put the Israeli authorities in a situation where only arrest and prevent return or permanently incapacitate could bring NVR down. Whether the Israeli decision makers would then back down and rather end the occupation than resort to these measures will very much depend on how the majority of Israelis wants them to react. To predict this, a detailed analysis of the following questions seems important:
How do most Israelis view the occupation?
The following viewpoints will be found in Israel:
- The occupation is a good thing because all Palestinian land belongs to Jews. It is their biblical homeland given to them by God. The Palestinians are just guests at best.
- The occupation should continue for security reasons. You cannot trust the Palestinians.
- The occupation should continue because it is the most convenient option. Trying to end it would cause major conflicts within Israeli society. Why risk that? The occupation might have some disadvantages but they are minor compared to the internal problems we would otherwise risk.
- I don’t care about the occupation. I have other problems to deal with.
- The occupation should end, preferably through comprehensive negotiations with the Palestinians.
Regular polls are conducted asking Israelis about their opinion concerning the Palestinian issue. It can be assumed that these polls adequately measure the number of Israelis who adhere to position 1 and 5, possibly also position 2. But what about positions 3 and 4? These will probably not be questions asked in most polls, maybe in none. However, it seems fairly probable that a substantial part of the Israeli public belongs to the groups 3 and 4. At the moment, they are happy with the status quo. But faced with a massive NVR campaign and only bad options for Israel, they might very well tilt the balance in favour of giving up the occupation to avoid an existential threat for Israel.
How much do ethical considerations matter?
How many Israelis see the conflict under the angle of “good vs bad” with Israel being on the good side? In contrast to that, how many Israelis don’t care much about ethics but rather adopt a cynical position and simply view this as the stronger side prevailing over the weaker one?
Those Israelis who think along ethical lines will be more inclined to favour Israel backing down and ending occupation than those who have a more cynical position.
It is very unlikely that polls exist which try to measure the amount of cynically-minded Israelis. However, one can observe that most Israeli politicians and media convey the impression that they see Israel as observing very high ethical standards when it comes to their relationship with the Palestinians. They regularly stress Israel’s strong desire for peace or claim that Israel’s army is the “most moral army in the world”. While most Palestinians would view this kind of claims as bizarre, it is likely that a great number of Israelis actually think that way and that the number of cynics amongst Israelis is relatively low. If that assessment were correct, it would increase the chances for NVR to be successful. If a society in its majority thinks of itself as being on a high cultural and ethical level, it will be more difficult to accept drastic measures such as arrest and prevent return or permanently incapacitate carried out on a large scale.
What opinion do Israelis have of Palestinians?
It seems plausible that many Israelis think that Palestinian society as a whole is largely backward, violence-prone and antisemitic and therefore on a much lower cultural and ethical level than Israel. It is not likely that many polls exist on that subject as it is politically very sensitive. The lower Israeli’s opinion about Palestinians is, the more likely they will approve drastic measures.
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