Conclusion

For all these reasons, it seems likely that Israeli decision makers would try to limit themselves to the measure disperse, hoping to quell the protest (the option arrest and release requiring too much resources). However, the bigger the number of activists and the more determined and better organized they would be, the less efficient disperse would prove to be. Israel would then likely try to provoke or at least hope for violent actions in order to resort to arrest and prevent return or permanently incapacitate. Most likely these measures would be a combination of putting some activists in prison, deporting others to Gaza and killing some. If the number of deaths is not too substantial, Israeli decision makers and members of the security forces could justifiably hope to retain the moral high ground in their own eyes, in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the key supporters in the world, first and foremost the United States.     

If on the other hand, Palestinians managed to keep the resistance completely nonviolent and Israel nevertheless reacted with imprisonment, deportation and killings, the moral high ground would very clearly be on Palestinian side. The consequences would be disastrous and lead to an existential threat for Israel.

Israel would therefore be faced with a choice: End the occupation or risk the downfall of the entire nation and thus the Zionist project. Maximum pressure on Israel would likely end the occupation.

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